News Ltd is reporting that there were 1000 votes counted but not recorded in the AEC computers, in Indi. The additional 1000 primaries for the independent means a much more difficult road to hoe for the incumbent, even with postals favouring her.
Postal votes are strongly favouring the incumbent in Indi, and seem likely to be enough to get her over the line.
There’s a two candidate preferred result available for postals counted so far. Of 1940 formal postals, 57.42 per cent have gone to the incumbent and 42.58 per cent went to the independent.
There are still 7,526 received postals yet to be processed and counted. If they’re all formal and the 2CP proportions hold, that will be 4321 to Mirabella and 3205 to the incumbent, a difference of 1117.
The independent is currently leading by only 764 votes, with all but three booths counted.
- Mirabella trails as postal votes count (theage.com.au)
- Mirabella may yet hang on in Indi (news.com.au)
- Mirabella in danger as McGowan holds lead (theage.com.au)
- Sophie Mirabella likely to hold Indi in tight battle with independent (abc.net.au)
- Indi: Cathy McGowan ‘not optimistic’ about beating Sophie Mirabella (oddonion.com)
Swings to / from Labor in Queensland metropolitan seats on the current (Sunday morning) AEC numbers are very interesting. It looks to me as though Griffith is an outlier: Griffith -5.42; Brisbane -3.2; Petrie -2.97; Forde -2.48; Lilley -2.05; Oxley -1.85; Ryan -0.81; Bonner -0.32; Rankin +0.53; Moreton +0.92; Blair +1.43; Bowman +1.43.
I live in Griffith and have been surprised by the amount of money, time and effort the Glasson camp have been putting in to this seat.
In the neighbouring south side seat of Bonner, where my friend Laura Fraser Hardy was the Labor candidate against the incumbent Mr Vasta, the swing against Labor was markedly different. In Griffith’s other neighbouring south side seat, Moreton, Labor member Graham Perrett appears to have had a swing to him.
Update Sunday afternoon: